NFL Week 18 scenarios: Who can clinch what? How can they do it? And who's playing starters?
- - NFL Week 18 scenarios: Who can clinch what? How can they do it? And who's playing starters?
Yahoo Sports StaffDecember 31, 2025 at 4:15 AM
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There's a lot left to be decided in Week 18 of the NFL regular season, including:
Four division titles (AFC North, AFC South, NFC South and NFC West)
No. 1 seed in the AFC
No. 1 seed in the NFC
No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft
Numerous playoff seedings
Here's your rundown of what's at stake each game, and how seriously each team is taking it.
Panthers at Buccaneers | Seahawks at 49ers | Colts at Texans | Titans at Jaguars | Cowboys at Giants | Browns at Bengals | Packers at Vikings | Saints at Falcons | Dolphins at Patriots | Chargers at Broncos | Commanders at Eagles | Lions at Bears | Jets at Bills | Cardinals at Rams | Chiefs at Raiders | Ravens at Steelers
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
What’s at stake for Panthers: If the Panthers win or tie, the NFC South and the No. 4 seed are theirs no matter what. If they lose, then they need help detailed below.
What’s at stake for Buccaneers: If the Buccaneers win, they still need the Falcons to lose or tie Sunday against the Saints to clinch the NFC South and the No. 4 seed. If the Bucs and Falcons both win, then there's a three-way tie atop the NFC South at 8-9, and the tiebreaker goes to the Panthers.
Are both teams going for it? You better believe it
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
What’s at stake for Seahawks: If the Seahawks win or tie, they clinch the NFC West and the No. 1 seed.
What’s at stake for 49ers: If the 49ers win, they clinch the NFC West and the No. 1 seed.
Are both teams going for it? These two teams vs. each other? With all this on the line? Book it
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
What’s at stake for Colts: Nothing except the chance to ruin a rival's shot at the division title. Even Indianapolis' first-round pick, which is currently 18th, goes to the Jets next spring thanks to the Sauce Gardner trade.
What’s at stake for Texans: If the Texans win and the Jaguars lose, the Texans win the AFC South.
Are both teams going for it? The Texans sure will. As for the Colts, the only big player news is rookie sixth-round quarterback Riley Leonard will reportedly start over Philip Rivers. So it sounds like both teams will be as close to full strength as can be.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
What’s at stake for Titans: Just the chance to play spoiler, and also potentially clinch the No. 2 pick in the draft with a loss and wins by the Giants, Jets and Cardinals.
What’s at stake for Jaguars: A lot. If the Jaguars win or tie, they'll win the AFC South no matter what. They can also win it with a Texans loss or tie. Jacksonville also has a shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which would require a win plus losses by the Broncos and Patriots.
Are both teams going for it? The Jaguars definitely are. The Titans haven't indicated they'll sit anyone yet either.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
What’s at stake for Cowboys: Draft positioning in the mid-first round and the chance to springboard into a more hopeful 2026.
What’s at stake for Giants: There's still a chance the Giants can get the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. They would have to lose, the Raiders would have to win, and at least two of the following teams would also have to win: Seahawks, Falcons, Browns and Bears. It's also one last chance to interim coach Mike Kafka to make his case to be the permanent head coach.
Are both teams going for it? Dallas is going to play its starters including Dak Prescott, but Jerry Jones hinted Tuesday he might not play much. The Cowboys also just released cornerback Trevon Diggs, so they seem to be getting a head start on offseason moves. The Giants, meanwhile, plan to play their starters too.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
What’s at stake for Browns: The Browns can get the No. 2 pick in the draft with a loss plus wins by the Giants, Jets, Titans and Cardinals. They currently hold the No. 6 pick.
What’s at stake for Bengals: Cincinnati will pick either in the back half of the top 10 or early in the teens no matter what.
Are both teams going for it? So far, both the Bengals and Browns have indicated their starters will play Week 18.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
What’s at stake for Packers: Nothing. The Packers are locked into the NFC's seventh seed.
What’s at stake for Vikings: Mid-first round draft positioning. The Vikings will be picking in the teens or early 20s.
Are both teams going for it? The Packers haven't decided if they're playing their starters yet, though it would behoove them to at least sit QB Jordan Love even if he clears concussion protocol this week as expected. Meanwhile, the Vikings haven't indicated their plans yet.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
What’s at stake for Saints: Tyler Shough's Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign and some optimism heading into 2026. Shough has been pretty good since becoming the starter, and the Saints are on a four-game win streak to close Kellen Moore's first season in charge. They're locked into a late top 10 or early teens first-round draft pick.
What’s at stake for Falcons: For the Falcons themselves? Very little, with their first-round pick this year going to the Rams thanks to the James Pearce Jr. trade last spring. But for the NFC South? That's where things go full sicko mode.
If the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on Saturday, then the fate of the NFC South rests in the Falcons' hands. If they win, the Panthers are division champions anyway, since the top three teams would be tied at 8-9 and the Panthers own the tiebreaker. If the Falcons lose, the Buccaneers would win the division. Yes ... ha ha ha ... YES!
Are both teams going for it? This is one of the NFL's most vicious rivalries. Both teams appear to be playing their starters, and don't expect that to change.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
What’s at stake for Dolphins: The chance to deny the Patriots the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win. Mike McDaniel's last chance to state his case to be head coach in 2026. Draft positioning too, since the pick could fall anywhere in the late top 10 to the teens.
What’s at stake for Patriots: There are two scenarios that would land the Patriots the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Either they win and the Broncos lose or tie, or they tie and the Broncos lose.
Are both teams going for it? Expect the Patriots to, with the Broncos playing at the same time Sunday. Meanwhile the Dolphins haven't indicated they're going to sit anybody, and likely want one more look at rookie seventh-round QB Quinn Ewers.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
What’s at stake for Chargers: Strap in. Out of 64 possible AFC playoff seeding scenarios, 18 end with the Chargers in the fifth seed (28%), 30 end with the Chargers in the sixth seed (47%), and 16 end with the Chargers in the seventh seed (25%). Fun!
What’s at stake for Broncos: Pretty simple: win, and they're the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Beyond that, they can still clinch the No. 1 seed with a tie and a Patriots loss or tie. They can also get it with a loss, as long as the Patriots lose and the Jaguars lose or tie.
Are both teams going for it? The Broncos almost certainly will, with head coach Sean Payton describing Sunday as "like a playoff game" and stressing the importance of the No. 1 seed historically. The Chargers, meanwhile, are resting quarterback Justin Herbert, who fractured his non-throwing hand in Week 13. They might rest more starters too, given how many injuries they've already suffered this season.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
What’s at stake for Commanders: There's still a small chance the Commanders secure the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. They'd need to lose, and they'd need the Giants, Jets, Titans, Cardinals and Browns to all win. Unlikely. But maybe!
What’s at stake for Eagles: The Eagles get the No. 2 seed in 25% (16 out of 64) of the Week 18 NFC scenarios. All of them require an Eagles win and a Bears loss. Otherwise they're the No. 3 seed, since the Bears own the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Are both teams going for it? Philadelphia might not be. Head coach Nick Sirianni said the Eagles are still thinking about sitting some starters, which they did last season too, though they had locked up the No. 2 seed at the time. The Commanders are expected to play their starters, with head coach Dan Quinn hinting injuries are the only thing that would keep players out.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
What’s at stake for Lions: Only the chance to help deny the Bears the No. 2 seed in the NFC. The Lions will pick in the teens in the first round of the NFL Draft.
What’s at stake for Bears: If the Bears win, they're the No. 2 seed in the NFC no matter what by virtue of a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Eagles. If the Bears lose, they can still clinch the No. 2 seed with an Eagles loss to the Commanders.
Are both teams going for it? Lions head coach Dan Campbell has indicated his starters will play as long as they're not risking long-term injury, plus it fits the franchise's ethos to play everyone. Bears head coach Ben Johnson, meanwhile, said Monday "we're playing to win this week." So it sounds like Chicago will be going for the No. 2 seed.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
What’s at stake for Jets: The Jets can get the No. 2 pick with a loss and a Giants win. It also might not hurt head coach Aaron Glenn to finish the season with a good performance after some truly ugly losses this season, despite team ownership indicating he'll be back.
What’s at stake for Bills: The Bills can move up to the fifth or sixth seed in 37.5% of the remaining scenarios, so they'll have to win and let the other results fall where they may.
Are both teams going for it? Buffalo is still deciding if starters will play, per head coach Sean McDermott. As for the Jets, well, they're in full-blown find-out-who-wants-to-be-here-next-year mode, so in some sense, you could say they're "going for it."
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
What’s at stake for Cardinals: The Cardinals can still get the No. 2 pick with a loss and wins by the Giants, Jets and Titans.
What’s at stake for Rams: The Rams need to win (and need the Seahawks to win) to have any shot at the No. 5 seed, which they'd get in 25% of the remaining NFC scenarios. Otherwise they'll be the sixth seed.
Are both teams going for it? Rams head coach Sean McVay said he won't rest starters in Week 18, which makes sense given how messy his team has looked in recent weeks. However, if the 49ers win Saturday and the Rams are locked into the sixth seed, it's a good bet the Rams' starters won't play the full game. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have given no indication they'll sit anyone yet.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
What’s at stake for Chiefs: The Chiefs can lock up a top-10 pick with a loss. It might be Travis Kelce's last career game, and he'll want to go out with a win. Otherwise, not much else in a rare lost season for Kansas City.
What’s at stake for Raiders: If the Raiders lose, they'll clinch the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. If they win it gets dicier, but there are still several scenarios that land them the top pick.
Are both teams going for it? Andy Reid has indicated his starters will play. As for the Raiders, well, it's trickier. Pete Carroll hasn't directly said starters won't play this week. Then again, Maxx Crosby seems a little defiant over being shut down due to a knee injury, while Brock Bowers was placed on injured reserve with a knee injury he's battled all season. So at the very least, the Raiders are giving the outward appearance of being ready to close up shop on this campaign. Which, of course, would be good for their draft status.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
What’s at stake for Ravens: If the Ravens win, they're the AFC North champion and the No. 4 seed. If they lose or tie, they're out of the playoffs.
What’s at stake for Steelers: If the Steelers win or tie, they're the AFC North champion and the No. 4 seed. If they lose, they're out of the playoffs.
Are both teams going for it? Hell yes. There's a reason this is Game 272.
Source: “AOL Sports”
